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Season 28 Discussion

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Bren on Wed Apr 20, 2016 9:47 am

Oh, I see. You've already picked up the names of players who have retired (I found at least one) so don't mind me.

The next project would be to generate an all-time list (unfortunately with incomplete data)

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Pantherus on Wed Apr 20, 2016 9:49 am

Yeah - I'm picking Bot team players or something...
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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by robelix on Wed Apr 20, 2016 1:25 pm

so ignoring Season 16.....the record to beat is 28 tries in a season...Ranger is on 15 or 16 so far...lets hope i dont draw the Latrines anytime soon....
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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Bren on Wed Apr 20, 2016 2:50 pm

Just for funsies. I came up with a fairly crude model to simulate the chances of me not only winning tonight's cup games but the next one as well.

Unfortunately the spreadsheet only gave me a 27.31% chance of surviving into round 6 and a 38.32% chance of winning tonight (interesting fact: if I manage to win this game then the model gives me a 71.27% chance of winning my round 5 game)

So, my model's a bit shit but I thought it was fun. Here's everyone's respective chances. The teams with the best chances of making round 6 have been shaded yellow.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gP_eWGJ8QYUWpbcvJ9jrFRcOM9LCLC6-Fwyy-NsuHDQ/pubhtml

Note: Rage Against The Latrine shows up as a 100% chance of winning Round 4 & 5 but it's being rounded up, the actual chances are 99.9974%

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Bren on Wed Apr 20, 2016 5:36 pm

Stars for my game against Rhymes With Orange below. I'm on the left, Rhymes With Orange on the right. I'll have to give the advantage to Rhymes With Orange. Damn.



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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Bren on Wed Apr 20, 2016 8:33 pm

Somehow I'm in the lead 7-3.

I've had 39% of the possession/40% of the territory.
I've made 58 tackles to 17. 13 phases to 46.

It took 27 minutes before anyone managed to score anything with Rhymes With Orange scoring a penalty.

I at least seem to making good use of the ball when I have it. My Tackle % is 72.5% against 54.8%. We've both made 2 linebreaks, meaning I'm breaking the line 0.15/phase vs 0.04/phase. Though the Metres Gained measure is a bit more even with 7.9m/phase to me vs 7.1m/phase for him. Probably suggests that the linebreak measure is a fluke.

Anyway, despite the lead now. Not expecting to hold on. Surely it's too much pressure for the next 40mins.

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Bren on Wed Apr 20, 2016 8:42 pm

Up 12-3 now.

My lock made a line break on the halfway mark, pulled off a massive dummy and scored under the posts. Somehow, my godly level kicker missed the conversion though.

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by tryasta on Wed Apr 20, 2016 8:51 pm

@Bren wrote:Anyway, despite the lead now. Not expecting to hold on. Surely it's too much pressure for the next 40mins.

Yeah, me too. I am down 0-50 to donkeysaint's Katipos but I expect in the last minutes his players will play like they really mean it. lol!
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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Bren on Wed Apr 20, 2016 9:09 pm

10 minutes to go. Still holding on 15-3.

5 minutes to go. Another try! 22-3! Crowd going nuts.

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by ivelostmysparky on Wed Apr 20, 2016 9:19 pm

Easy win for Bren. Tactical Masterclass. Don't know what you were worried about.

Stats seem to suggest you are using drift and he couldn't penetrate you while Orange used rush and you carved him up on the rare occasion you had the ball.
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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Bren on Wed Apr 20, 2016 9:31 pm

Rhymes With Orange finally crack the Barbecued Duck defense in the 80th minute to score a consolation try. Final score 22-10.

First win against a division 2 side for the club, definitely a classic win for the club.

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by ivelostmysparky on Thu Apr 21, 2016 7:05 am

@Pantherus wrote:Whelp - squad rebuild is pretty well done.

Think I've got a reasonable mix of old and young players - made a couple of screw ups when buying - wound up buying 4 props, one of whom was Rebellious and I changed my mind but still wound up buying him (for my autobid max no less!) and one of whom has ended up playing No.8 as the 6 I was going for I missed out on (just)

Potentially a couple more buys to get 2nd generation ready but think I'll probably sit back for now.

I just checked out your squad and I don't see what your plan is. Do you think you can win your league with the squad you've got? Even if you do, you'll want to win by 30+ as often as possible to get your ranking points up enough so you finish over the autopromote line.
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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by robelix on Thu Apr 21, 2016 2:17 pm

Renee Ranger scores 3 more tries in the cup last night, taking his season cup tally to 19....10 more to go to break (or equal?)the record!
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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Kruizey on Thu Apr 21, 2016 2:56 pm

Playing Linkin Hawk 15 in the next round. He is a 350KCSR average monster who has reawakened this season but only has a rating of 53.9. Now not only is he in my league damaging my chances of promotion. He is also likely to knock me out of the Cup...

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by donkeysaint on Thu Apr 21, 2016 6:20 pm

@Bren wrote:Just for funsies. I came up with a fairly crude model to simulate the chances of me not only winning tonight's cup games but the next one as well.

Unfortunately the spreadsheet only gave me a 27.31% chance of surviving into round 6 and a 38.32% chance of winning tonight (interesting fact: if I manage to win this game then the model gives me a 71.27% chance of winning my round 5 game)

So, my model's a bit shit but I thought it was fun. Here's everyone's respective chances. The teams with the best chances of making round 6 have been shaded yellow.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gP_eWGJ8QYUWpbcvJ9jrFRcOM9LCLC6-Fwyy-NsuHDQ/pubhtml

Note: Rage Against The Latrine shows up as a 100% chance of winning Round 4 & 5 but it's being rounded up, the actual chances are 99.9974%

Interesting! I'm assessed to have a 37.77% chance of reaching R6. Looking at my next draw I probably won't.

Last season I beat the odds though, and reached R8. I was lucky with HGA and being underestimated, but I wonder what my odds for that were?

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Bren on Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:36 pm

I thought it was an interesting thought experiment because of the random nature of the cup. Obviously trying to predict who's going to win round 5 before round 4 kicks off is a bit of a fools game but I'd say it shows you were a bit unlucky in your draw.

There's a lot of calculations going on to reach that 37.77% figure.

What's the chances you're going to win Round 4?
What's the chances of the other 254 teams winning Round 4?
If you do win Round 4, what's the chances of facing any one of the 254 other teams in Round 5?
Chance of beating them at home?
Chance of beating them away?

(shit, I finally worked out what was causing the small error in my calculations. WOO -- sorry I had to mention it, it was bugging the hell out of me)

If I was run the calculations again, knowing the result of round 4 and knowing who your round 5 opponent is, then your 37.77% would probably drderlying model is pretty simplistic) just that the nature of the competition always had possibilities that you were going to meet someone you would beat 100% of the time, others that you'd lose to 100% of the time and others in between. It's a reflection of the fun of the cup that lets lower teams have improbable long runs. Might be interesting to calculate the chances of hitting an opponent that you have a 0% chance of beating. I'd say it'd probably be pretty low -- hence, why I say you were unlucky.

I did actually extrapolate the calculations a little here -- check out sheet2. I used a different method of calculating probabilities so the starting numbers differ a little. This actually gives you a 0% (rounded down) chance of making round 8 so you definitely defied the odds last season!

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by trippa on Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:14 am

I see pantherus has been out of the game but still beat my team of also rans ...
Have almost lost my team twice to inactivaty but I just gave my junior team a spruce up positionally ...
My senior team is still 100% pure shapeshifter after 28 seasons ... Hasn't done me any favours but has been a sweet challenge ...
Anyway what and when are the promotions supposed to happen for the next few crops of under 20 ? Is this a promotion season or scouting?
I am way out of touch ... Have been for 12 seasons Very Happy

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Bren on Mon Apr 25, 2016 5:30 pm

This is a scouting season, so spend those stars!

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by chewy on Tue Apr 26, 2016 8:48 am

Just wanna thank our new journo for his news reports. cheers
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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Bren on Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:08 am

@chewy wrote:Just wanna thank our new journo for his news reports. cheers

Big +1 from me. Great work tryasta!

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Bren on Wed Apr 27, 2016 10:26 am

Hopefully an easy couple of cup games tonight. My NZ team faces the Gropers who appear to LTNT every game and now have an exhausted team with 3 starters out to injury. My team is pretty tired too after 3 LTNT's in a row but I don't think they should pose too much of a challenge. I've gone with my 2nd XV on Normal.

My Dutch team is facing a newish team so should be easily defeated with my 2nd XV on WNWIM.

(With 23 players in my squads, 2nd XV actually means 8 bench players/7 starters)

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Pantherus on Wed Apr 27, 2016 10:49 am

@trippa wrote:I see pantherus has been out of the game but still beat my team of also rans ...
Have almost lost my team twice to inactivaty but I just gave my junior team a spruce up positionally ...
My senior team is still 100% pure shapeshifter after 28 seasons ... Hasn't done me any favours but has been a sweet challenge ...
Anyway what and when are the promotions supposed to happen for the next few crops of under 20 ?  Is this a promotion season or scouting?  
I am way out of touch ... Have been for 12 seasons Very Happy

To be fair - I've just done a big rebuild Smile
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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Pantherus on Wed Apr 27, 2016 2:33 pm

Hmm - comparing my rebuilt team to Linkin's I'm a long way behind him.

That being said - he's gone for a clearly older squad - likely with the intent of a short-term boost up into Div II (maybe Div I?) but with all his players ~30+ they'll start declining soon, and in unison. I've staggered my players with some younger guys, so some will start declining but they'll mostly take turns doing it over the seasons and, with the few mil I've still got I can hopefully keep replacing them...
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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Bren on Thu Apr 28, 2016 8:53 am

Two wins yesterday so both my Kiwi and Dutch team advance to the next round of the cup.

The Kiwi team struggled a bit more than I thought they would but came up with a 32-15 win over the Gropers. They've drawn Men In Black at home next -- a team with a 60k CSR average -- so should be an easy win. Hello Round 7!

My Dutch team rampaged over a newish side 102-0 and join the Sweet Sixteen. Got the Fatty Boom Baas next -- they've got nearly identical CSR to me (222k vs 218k) -- so could be a tough one.

How did everyone else fare?

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Re: Season 28 Discussion

Post by Pantherus on Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:15 am

Both my teams got knocked out.

NZ Team played away on higher Intensity to a team with an average CSR 50k lower than mine...I lost Storm in the first 10 minutes but really, a hugely disappointing defeat and leaving me feeling like I need to splurge further on my team...digging into what's left of my nest egg...

SK Team also lost but wasn't really expecting much there
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Re: Season 28 Discussion

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