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Chat thread

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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Sat Dec 03, 2016 6:44 pm

@donkeysaint wrote:Thanks tryasta!

So Chewy's success with relative CSR is partly because of player age and experience? Sounds reasonable. Still, very impressive consistency.

Melville's success is built on a combination of various factors (IMHO) but what separates Melville from the rest is that Chewy has apparently identified experience before CSR as the key to success.

This not only is a refreshing approach in a game CSR obsessed, but also has a subtle tweak. Since experience is not considered in the salary, Melville pays significantly less money than other competitors, while remaining at the top.

Obviously, to make it successful, you need to back all this with results, which Melville has done.

I would like to highlight one thing. The consustency of results regardless of opponents' CSR Melville is showing can be seen as incorrelation to CSR. Melville has managed to be the team that depends less on opponents CSR to win their games. Other teams ina similar situation (but not exactly the same are 3ème Age and Sparker). Jolly Roger Crew right side of the graph is, as Bren pointed out, absolutely meaningless because of the lack of significant amount of games.

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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Sat Dec 03, 2016 6:54 pm

Ah, just another comment. For teams heavily dependant on CSR, it is interesting to see where the graph crosses 50%. In this area (between 10K CSR against and 20K against CSR for most teams shown here) I would place the tactical contribution of the manager to his team.

I mean, if a team gets 50% of wins when rivals are 12000 CSR superior, his taactics are worth 12000 CSR for his team.

An idea could be to do the same for home and away matches to see the contribution of HGA

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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Sat Dec 03, 2016 6:58 pm

@Bren wrote:This did give me an idea of my own.

How good a predictor are the stars? So, if you have an star advantage in Attack how often do you ending up winning the game? Here are the results based on the Pizza Shield last season.

Maul - 86.3%
Creative - 85.6%
Pick and Go - 84.6%
Expansive - 83.4%
Driving - 82.1%
Handling - 80.4%
Defense - 79.9%
Scrum - 79.0%
Stamina - 78.7%
Lineout - 77.1%
Attack - 73.5%
Ruck - 73.3%
Kicking - 65.0%

The problem with that is that it is not easy to isolate an advantage in one area from the rest. An advantage in the maul will probably also mean ruck, lineout...

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Re: Chat thread

Post by Bren on Sat Dec 03, 2016 7:05 pm

Yeah, tried a couple of things to decouple those effects but couldn't quite get there. Flawed analysis, but think it could get interesting if I tinker with it.

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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Sat Dec 03, 2016 7:58 pm

DireWolf Straits
Games analyzed: 264: 189 wins, 73 losses
Winning pctg at home: 80%
Winning pctg away: 62%
Winning pctg against higher CSR: 34%
Winning pctg against lower CSR: 93%


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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:20 pm

@Bren wrote:Yeah, tried a couple of things to decouple those effects but couldn't quite get there. Flawed analysis, but think it could get interesting if I tinker with it.

What about this?

First you calculate the % of winning based on global stars difference:

0 stars = 50%
+1 stars = 55%
+2 stars = 58%
+3 stars = 60%
+4 stars = 62%
etc...

Then for maul, for example, you calculate the advantage in maul AND the advantage in stars.

If you have: +1 star in maul = 60% probability of winning and average star difference is +4, you know that a full star in maul is a 62%-60% = 2% advantage.






PS: BTW, all this studies and stats are hiding the real purpose of it all: I am now less than 40 posts away from reaching you

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Re: Chat thread

Post by Bren on Sun Dec 18, 2016 12:02 pm

Air New Zealand has driven me to day drinking! Stranded in Christchurch airport for a few hours. Sad

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Re: Chat thread

Post by Bren on Sun Dec 18, 2016 12:03 pm

Shit, tryasta's getting close with that post count.

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Re: Chat thread

Post by chewy on Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:14 pm

Gilbert kicking for NT today.
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Re: Chat thread

Post by trippa on Sun Dec 18, 2016 11:36 pm

@tryasta wrote:Hi all.

I have been doing a bit of programming on my side... BR-related. I have done some stats from the games played by several teams. I could use some ideas on what to check if you have any. I provide an example of what I have obtained:

Sparker
Games analyzed: 193: 149 wins, 44 losses
Winning pctg at home: 86%
Winning pctg away: 66%
Winning pctg against higher CSR: 42%
Winning pctg against lower CSR: 87%




Jolly Roger Crew
Games analyzed: 300: 281 wins, 18 losses
Winning pctg at home: 90%
Winning pctg away: 68%
Winning pctg against higher CSR: 56%
Winning pctg against lower CSR: 96%




Okaiawa
Games analyzed: 270: 179 wins, 90 losses
Winning pctg at home: 71%
Winning pctg away: 61%
Winning pctg against higher CSR: 30%
Winning pctg against lower CSR: 85%




Melville
Games analyzed: 286: 227 wins, 57 losses
Winning pctg at home: 90%
Winning pctg away: 68%
Winning pctg against higher CSR: 64%
Winning pctg against lower CSR: 94%




I can obtain every stat that is shown in the reporter's summary... but I am not sure what stats could be interesting.

Hey bro ... just out of interest ... how much work would it be to get these stats for my team. I have a sneaking suspicion that my percentage of wins against higher CSR teams would be atrocious

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Re: Chat thread

Post by ivelostmysparky on Mon Dec 19, 2016 3:29 am

@Bren wrote:Air New Zealand has driven me to day drinking! Stranded in Christchurch airport for a few hours. Sad

Could be worse. Could be stranded in a dry country's airport Sad
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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:29 am

@Trippa:

Shapeshifter:

Games analyzed: 187: 120 wins, 67 losses
Winning pctg at home: 79%
Winning pctg away: 47%
Winning pctg against higher CSR: 21%
Winning pctg against lower CSR: 79%




The Shapeshifter almost have no games with CSRs higher than theirs (a bit like Jolly Roger Crew) so the part right of 20000 CSR against is not significant.

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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:32 am

@Bren wrote:Shit, tryasta's getting close with that post count.



Resistance is futile.

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Re: Chat thread

Post by trippa on Mon Dec 19, 2016 10:21 pm

@tryasta wrote:@Trippa:

Shapeshifter:

Games analyzed: 187: 120 wins, 67 losses
Winning pctg at home: 79%
Winning pctg away: 47%
Winning pctg against higher CSR: 21%
Winning pctg against lower CSR: 79%




The Shapeshifter almost have no games with CSRs higher than theirs (a bit like Jolly Roger Crew) so the part right of 20000 CSR against is not significant.

Cheers for doing that bro ... as I suspected .... and my away from home percentage is just as bad .... Still thats what happens when you don't keep up with tactics and refuse to go to the TM ever.... slowly fade into obscurity Very Happy

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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:06 am

Do not despair, they say there are three kind of lies: Lies, Damned lies and Statistics Smile

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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:41 pm

I updated my blog in case anyone (Van Coke, perhaps?) is interested

http://playingblackoutrugby.blogspot.fr/

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Re: Chat thread

Post by ivelostmysparky on Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:55 am

Pretty graphs.
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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:01 am

In reality, all is just an excuse to write yet another post and get one closer to @Bren

Only 18 posts to get him

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Re: Chat thread

Post by ivelostmysparky on Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:03 am

Can you do this for clubs too? You could track the rise and fall of razor and batman.
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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:49 pm

@ivelostmysparky This request was the most difficult one, because of several reasons. However, I think I quite managed to reflect what you wanted... to the extent of what the game can provide.



The limiting factor here is that before Season 23 Round 7 average CSR was not displayed in the Summary Reports Sad





Edit: Oh, what a crappy resolution!!!! I can't read anything.

Ok, I need to host the image in my blog to make it readable.

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Re: Chat thread

Post by ivelostmysparky on Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:28 am

Thanks. Batman has been holding steady for many season, and razor was pretty good in his pomp.
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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Fri Dec 23, 2016 7:59 pm

Let us be simplistic:

a.- let's assume salaries are linear with CSR (not quite)
b.- let's assume the amount of money you generate can be calculated as the integral of the (steady) income over time.
c.- let's assume the amount of money you pay can be calculated as the integral of the salaries you pay + a certain amount (the amount depends on having an academy, coaches, training facilities...)

Then, if we see the graph again, we can deduce that Razor's team integral (assuming it is a constant times the integral of CSR) was WAAAAY larger than anything any player has ever had. This is why, the amount of money being the limiting factor, it could hardly be sustained for a very long period and eventually he bailed out.

On the other hand, Batman's graph's total areal is simply unmatched.

If my understanding is correct, teams like Sparker, Okaiawa and Melville are living on the edge of sustainability (or close to it). This is what makes Batman's fare really impressive: the ability to sustain it for a longer period in an apparently stable regime.

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Re: Chat thread

Post by tryasta on Sat Dec 24, 2016 1:12 am

Christmas Quiz

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Re: Chat thread

Post by chewy on Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:38 am

I assume Batman has money, loads of it. He'll be top of this game for a while yet.
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Re: Chat thread

Post by ivelostmysparky on Sat Dec 24, 2016 9:25 am

Yeah his total TM deficit is only $15M so he is likely loaded.
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